The military definition of conflict is well understood, but economic conflict- whether between states, corporations or social groups- also has a profound impact on human affairs. Differences in energy policy between the US and the EU have affected relations, and may be a factor in an economic conflict between them. Conflict between different groups within a society is also worthy of examination, especially during a time of increased tension brought on by a lowering of living standards and economic recession.
The literature on the subject of resource conflict is increasing, particularly as it has become obvious that certain critical resources, such as water and oil, are under increasing strain. Michael Klare’s books, Resource Wars and Blood and Oil are key sources for this paper. His conclusion, that resources (particularly oil) will be a key factor in conflicts of the future, appears to be supported by recent events. Literature addressing the issue of Peak Oil, by writers such as Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, Howard Kunstler, Kenneth Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, is also relevant to the subject. These authors deal with the issues that come from a shortfall in the oil supply; increased conflict, economic recession and depression, falling food production and increased mortality. This is a very dark issue, but a necessary one to address, and the Peak Oil literature does that.
Oil became a focus of conflict and a significant contributor to wartime victory on the eve of the First World War. Britain had begun to convert its warships from coal to oil, which gave the Royal Navy an important operational advantage, but meant that Britain was now reliant on foreign energy sources to maintain her maritime supremacy. Britain’s supplies came from the Persian Gulf, but these fields were threatened by the Ottoman Empire. The first military campaign to protect oil supplies was launched in November 1914, when Indian and British troops landed in Basra to seize the Mesopotamian oilfields. The First World War was the first to see widespread mechanisation. While horses were vitally important throughout the war, the use of aircraft, tanks, trucks and oil-powered warships increased exponentially as the war progressed. The British began the war with 50 aircraft; by June 1918 they had over 2,600. The British Army’s truck fleet went from 10,000 to 60,000 over the same period. This was made possible by the huge production advantage the Allies had; at the time, the US was the world’s main producer and exporter of oil. During the war, the Allies produced approximately 151 million tonnes, while the Central Powers produced less than 10 percent of this. After the war, Lord Curzon of Britain declared that the Allies had “…floated to victory upon a wave of oil.”
The Second World War reinforced oil’s importance as a strategic resource. Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbour and its invasion of Southeast Asia largely in response to a US oil embargo. One of Japan’s main strategic objectives was the capture of the Indonesian oilfields. Germany’s war aims included seizing the oilfields of the Caucasus, a campaign that led to the disaster at Stalingrad. Allied oil production was just as dominant in the Second World War as it had been in the First; total production topped a billion tonnes, compared to Axis production of some 67 million tonnes. By 1945 the German and Japanese militaries had become almost immobilised as their supply sources- inadequate to begin with- were cut off. German and Japanese attempts to secure sufficient oil reserves for themselves failed disastrously, and were major contributors to their defeat.
Oil and conflict remained linked after 1945. Iran’s democratically elected government was overthrown and replaced by the Shah in a CIA-backed coup when it threatened to nationalise Western oil assets in 1953. In 1961, Iraq threatened to annex Kuwait, but was blocked by British intervention. Then in 1973 the Arab members of OPEC embargoed the West, following western support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. This was the first successful use of the ‘oil weapon’ by OPEC, following two abortive attempts in 1956 and 1967. Those attempts had been defeated by US surplus production, but this had gone by 1973, and the way was open for OPEC to impose its embargo. This created an artificial oil shortage that sent the price of oil from US$2.48 per barrel in 1972 to US$11.58 in 1974. This price rise wreaked havoc on the world economy, raising unemployment and inflation and plunging the world into recession. In 1979 a second oil shock followed the overthrow of Iran’s Shah, and in the subsequent turmoil, Iran’s production (8 percent of the world’s total) was temporarily cut off. The price again skyrocketed, from US$13.68 in 1978 to US$35.69 in 1980, causing further economic and social disruption around the globe. The Iranian Revolution, combined with the concurrent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, led President Carter to declare that Washington would use- “…any means necessary, including military force…”- to ensure access to Middle Eastern oil. This declaration (known as the Carter Doctrine) led to the formation of the US military’s Central Command, tasked with controlling US units in the Middle East and Central Asia. It currently controls operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.
The Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 was caused by an Iraqi attempt to seize Iranian oilfields and transport routes. As the longest conventional war of the 20th century, it cost a million lives and spilled over into the rest of the Gulf, leading to attacks on oil tankers. The newly formed US Central Command intervened, escorting tankers through the Straits of Hormuz, in accordance with the Carter Doctrine. When the war ended, Iraq again attempted to annex Kuwait, invading in late 1990. A US-led international coalition pushed the Iraqis out, ensuring that Iraq (and Saddam Hussein) did not gain the 9 percent of the world’s oil held by Kuwait. While the coalition stopped short of toppling Saddam, sanctions were imposed that severely weakened Iraq. The result was that when the US and its allies invaded Iraq in 2003, the Iraqis were unable to mount an effective conventional defence. While the US government has consistently denied that oil was a major factor in the campaign, Dick Cheney himself has linked the two. Oil forms 95 percent of Iraq’s exports, and its reserves are the third largest in the world. Coalition forces especially targeted oil infrastructure during their advance. One example that stood out was the immediate seizure of the Iraqi Oil Ministry, which was then heavily guarded, while other essential administrative buildings were looted and destroyed.
Outside of the Middle East oil has also had a hand in the development of conflict at all levels. Nigeria in particular is beset by struggles over control of its oil revenues, while oil plays a major part in the civil wars and political unrest in the Caspian region, Venezuela, Columbia, Angola and the Sudan. At the other end of the conflict spectrum was the unrest caused in Europe in 2000 by widespread protests over the price of fuel. Protestors brought traffic to a halt throughout Britain, France and Spain, as they agitated for lower fuel taxes. While these conflicts did not result in the use of force, the protestors were clearly seeking to impose their will on their governments, and they used a wide variety of means to accomplish this, the blockading of oil installations being the most effective.
While oil has only been used by humans for a relatively short period of time, it has sparked a large number of conflicts. These have ranged from peaceful demonstrations through guerrilla insurgencies to full-scale conventional wars. Oil has become so important to human civilisation that conflict is often considered necessary to gain access and control over it. That critical importance continues to this day, and is likely to increase if current trends continue.
The Second World War reinforced oil’s importance as a strategic resource. Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbour and its invasion of Southeast Asia largely in response to a US oil embargo. One of Japan’s main strategic objectives was the capture of the Indonesian oilfields. Germany’s war aims included seizing the oilfields of the Caucasus, a campaign that led to the disaster at Stalingrad. Allied oil production was just as dominant in the Second World War as it had been in the First; total production topped a billion tonnes, compared to Axis production of some 67 million tonnes. By 1945 the German and Japanese militaries had become almost immobilised as their supply sources- inadequate to begin with- were cut off. German and Japanese attempts to secure sufficient oil reserves for themselves failed disastrously, and were major contributors to their defeat.
Oil and conflict remained linked after 1945. Iran’s democratically elected government was overthrown and replaced by the Shah in a CIA-backed coup when it threatened to nationalise Western oil assets in 1953. In 1961, Iraq threatened to annex Kuwait, but was blocked by British intervention. Then in 1973 the Arab members of OPEC embargoed the West, following western support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. This was the first successful use of the ‘oil weapon’ by OPEC, following two abortive attempts in 1956 and 1967. Those attempts had been defeated by US surplus production, but this had gone by 1973, and the way was open for OPEC to impose its embargo. This created an artificial oil shortage that sent the price of oil from US$2.48 per barrel in 1972 to US$11.58 in 1974. This price rise wreaked havoc on the world economy, raising unemployment and inflation and plunging the world into recession. In 1979 a second oil shock followed the overthrow of Iran’s Shah, and in the subsequent turmoil, Iran’s production (8 percent of the world’s total) was temporarily cut off. The price again skyrocketed, from US$13.68 in 1978 to US$35.69 in 1980, causing further economic and social disruption around the globe. The Iranian Revolution, combined with the concurrent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, led President Carter to declare that Washington would use- “…any means necessary, including military force…”- to ensure access to Middle Eastern oil. This declaration (known as the Carter Doctrine) led to the formation of the US military’s Central Command, tasked with controlling US units in the Middle East and Central Asia. It currently controls operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.
The Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 was caused by an Iraqi attempt to seize Iranian oilfields and transport routes. As the longest conventional war of the 20th century, it cost a million lives and spilled over into the rest of the Gulf, leading to attacks on oil tankers. The newly formed US Central Command intervened, escorting tankers through the Straits of Hormuz, in accordance with the Carter Doctrine. When the war ended, Iraq again attempted to annex Kuwait, invading in late 1990. A US-led international coalition pushed the Iraqis out, ensuring that Iraq (and Saddam Hussein) did not gain the 9 percent of the world’s oil held by Kuwait. While the coalition stopped short of toppling Saddam, sanctions were imposed that severely weakened Iraq. The result was that when the US and its allies invaded Iraq in 2003, the Iraqis were unable to mount an effective conventional defence. While the US government has consistently denied that oil was a major factor in the campaign, Dick Cheney himself has linked the two. Oil forms 95 percent of Iraq’s exports, and its reserves are the third largest in the world. Coalition forces especially targeted oil infrastructure during their advance. One example that stood out was the immediate seizure of the Iraqi Oil Ministry, which was then heavily guarded, while other essential administrative buildings were looted and destroyed.
Outside of the Middle East oil has also had a hand in the development of conflict at all levels. Nigeria in particular is beset by struggles over control of its oil revenues, while oil plays a major part in the civil wars and political unrest in the Caspian region, Venezuela, Columbia, Angola and the Sudan. At the other end of the conflict spectrum was the unrest caused in Europe in 2000 by widespread protests over the price of fuel. Protestors brought traffic to a halt throughout Britain, France and Spain, as they agitated for lower fuel taxes. While these conflicts did not result in the use of force, the protestors were clearly seeking to impose their will on their governments, and they used a wide variety of means to accomplish this, the blockading of oil installations being the most effective.
While oil has only been used by humans for a relatively short period of time, it has sparked a large number of conflicts. These have ranged from peaceful demonstrations through guerrilla insurgencies to full-scale conventional wars. Oil has become so important to human civilisation that conflict is often considered necessary to gain access and control over it. That critical importance continues to this day, and is likely to increase if current trends continue.
